Median Earnings (1yr)
$20,060
76th percentile (80th in CA)
Median Debt
$7,381
25% below national median
Debt-to-Earnings
0.37
Manageable
Sample Size
271
Adequate data

Analysis

Paul Mitchell the School-Modesto graduates earn $20,060 in their first year—outperforming 80% of California cosmetology programs and ranking well above the state median of $14,600. That's a meaningful advantage in a field where most graduates struggle to break $15,000 annually. The $7,381 in typical debt is also lower than most competitors, though still on the higher end nationally. With nearly 60% of students receiving Pell grants, this program clearly serves working-class students who need strong immediate earnings.

The concern here isn't the starting point—it's what happens next. Earnings actually decline slightly to $19,030 by year four, which isn't unusual in cosmetology as graduates navigate the realities of commission-based work, building clientele, and the physical demands of the profession. Still, even at year four, these graduates remain well ahead of California peers.

For parents, this is a reasonable choice if your child is committed to cosmetology. The debt load represents about four and a half months of first-year earnings—manageable if they work full-time. The school delivers better outcomes than most California alternatives, which matters when comparing local options. Just understand that cosmetology earnings tend to plateau early, so this career path requires either building a strong client base, transitioning to salon ownership, or developing additional revenue streams like product sales or specialized services.

Where Paul Mitchell the School-Modesto Stands

Earnings vs. debt across all cosmetology certificate's programs nationally

Paul Mitchell the School-ModestoOther cosmetology programs

Programs in the upper-left quadrant (high earnings, low debt) offer the best value. Programs in the lower-right quadrant warrant careful consideration.

Earnings Distribution

How Paul Mitchell the School-Modesto graduates compare to all programs nationally

Paul Mitchell the School-Modesto graduates earn $20k, placing them in the 76th percentile of all cosmetology certificate programs nationally.

Earnings Over Time

How earnings evolve from 1 year to 4 years after graduation

Earnings trajectories vary significantly. Some programs show strong early returns that plateau; others start lower but accelerate. Consider where you want to be at year 4, not just year 1.

Compare to Similar Programs in California

Cosmetology certificate's programs at peer institutions in California (130 total in state)

SchoolEarnings (1yr)Earnings (4yr)Median DebtDebt/Earnings
Paul Mitchell the School-Modesto$20,060$19,030$7,3810.37
The Salon Professional Academy-San Jose$24,660$24,953$10,3760.42
San Jose City College$23,253———
MTI College$21,371$22,802$10,5500.49
Institute of Technology$21,184—$13,3410.63
Shasta School of Cosmetology$20,144———
National Median$17,113—$9,8620.58

Other Cosmetology Programs in California

Compare tuition, earnings, and debt across California schools

SchoolIn-State TuitionEarnings (1yr)Debt
The Salon Professional Academy-San Jose
San Jose
—$24,660$10,376
San Jose City College
San Jose
$1,366$23,253—
MTI College
Sacramento
—$21,371$10,550
Institute of Technology
Clovis
—$21,184$13,341
Shasta School of Cosmetology
Redding
—$20,144—

About This Data

Source: U.S. Department of Education College Scorecard (October 2025 release)

Population: Graduates who received federal financial aid (Title IV grants or loans). At Paul Mitchell the School-Modesto, approximately 59% of students receive Pell grants. Students who did not receive federal aid are not included in these figures.

Earnings: Median earnings from IRS W-2 data for graduates who are employed and not enrolled in further education, measured 1 year after completion. Earnings are pre-tax and include wages, salaries, and self-employment income.

Debt: Median cumulative federal loan debt at graduation. Does not include private loans or Parent PLUS loans borrowed on behalf of students.